Shovan Kumar Sahu1,2,3, Lei Chen2,3, Song Liu2,3,5, Jia Xing This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.2,3, Rohit Mathur4

1 Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore
2 State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
3 State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China
4 The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711, USA
5 Economy and Information Technology Department of Zhejiang, Zhejiang, China

Received: December 3, 2022
Revised: July 17, 2023
Accepted: August 29, 2023

 Copyright The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.

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Cite this article:

Sahu, S.K., Chen, L., Liu, S., Xing, J., Mathur, R. (2023). Effect of Future Climate Change on Stratosphere-to-Troposphere-Exchange Driven Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere. Aerosol Air Qual. Res.


  • STE contribution to surface O3 is higher in low O3 days and vice versa.
  • STE contribution increase in EUR in spring and winter and in ECH in spring.
  • STE contribution to O3 was higher in RCP8.5 scenario as compared to RCP4.5 scenario.
  • EUR experienced the highest STE contribution to O3 due to climate change.
  • ECH experienced highest non-STE meteorological contribution to O3 due climate change.


Future estimates of atmospheric pollutant concentrations serve as critical information for policy makers to formulate current policy indicators to achieve future targets. Tropospheric burden of O3 is modulated not only by anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions, but also by the downward transport of O3 associated with stratosphere to troposphere exchange (STE). Hence changes in the estimates of STE and its contributions are key to understand the nature and intensity of future ground level O3 concentrations. The difference in simulated O3 mixing ratios with and without the O3-Potential Vorticity (PV) parameterization scheme is used to represent the model estimated influence of STE on tropospheric O3 distributions. Though STE contributions remain constant in Northern hemisphere as a whole, regional differences exist with Europe (EUR) registering increased STE contribution in both spring and winter while Eastern China (ECH) reporting increased contribution in spring in 2050 (RCP8.5) as compared to 2015. Importance of climate change can be deduced from the fact that ECH and EUR recorded increased STE contribution to O3 in RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Comparison of STE and non-STE meteorological process contributions to O3 due to climate change revealed that contributions of non-STE processes were highest in summer while STE contributions were highest in winter. EUR reported highest STE contribution while ECH reported highest non-STE contribution. None of the 3 regions show consistent low STE contribution due to future climate change (< 50%) in all seasons indicating the significance of STE to ground level O3.

Keywords: STE, O3, Northern hemisphere, Future scenarios, RCP4.5, RCP8.5

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