Special Issue on Air Pollution and its Impact in South and Southeast Asia

Sreyashi Debnath This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.1,2, Rama Krishna Karumuri3, Gaurav Govardhan1,4, Rajmal Jat1, Himadri Saini5, Akash Vispute1, Santosh H. Kulkarni6, Chinmay Jena7, Rajesh Kumar8, D.M. Chate6, Sachin D. Ghude This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.1 

1 Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Ministry of Earth Sciences, Pune, India
2 Development of Atmospheric and Space Sciences, Savitribai Phule Pune University, Pune, India
3 King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
4 National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Ministry of Earth Sciences, Noida, UP, India
5 University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, Australia
6 Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC), Pune, India
7 India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, India
8 National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA


Received: March 21, 2022
Revised: July 7, 2022
Accepted: July 28, 2022

 Copyright The Author's institutions. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited. 


Download Citation: ||https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.220112  


Cite this article:

Debnath, S., Karumuri, R.K., Govardhan, G., Jat, R., Saini, H., Vispute, A., Kulkarni, S.H., Jena, C., Kumar, R., Chate, D.M., Ghude, S.D. (2022). Implications of Implementing Promulgated and Prospective Emission Regulations on Air Quality and Health in India during 2030. Aerosol Air Qual. Res. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.220112


HIGHLIGHTS

  • Adoption of promulgated (S2) and ambitious prospective regulations (S3) in 2030.
  • Evaluation of air quality and health benefits under S2 and S3 scenarios in India.
  • Decrease by 15% and 49% in ambient PM2.5 exposure under S2 and S3 respectively.
  • 38% and 62% states would meet NAAQS of 40 µg m3 under S2 and S3 respectively.
  • S2 and S3 are projected to prevent 8.3% and 23.6% premature mortalities in 2030.
 

ABSTRACT


To improve ambient air quality, India has laid out strict action plans to reduce the increment in emissions over regional to urban scale by the year 2030. This study evaluates policy-induced improvement in air quality and associated health benefits achievable due to reduction in PM2.5 exposure under the adoption of promulgated (S2) and ambitious prospective regulations (S3) with respect to the scenario for Business As Usual (BAU) in 2030. The Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with online chemistry (WRF-Chem) has been used to simulate ambient PM2.5 exposure to the population under BAU, S2 and S3 emission scenarios. Results show 15% (9 µg m-3) and 49% (32 µg m-3) decreases in all India ambient PM2.5 exposure under S2 and S3 scenarios, respectively, with respect to the BAU scenario. Throughout India, under the S2 and S3 scenarios, 38% and 62% of states would meet the annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 40 µg m-3, respectively. We projected that the S2 emission regulation scenario would prevent 274,000 (8.3%) premature mortalities and improve mean life expectancy by about 0.6 ± 0.2 years in 2030 relative to the BAU scenario. On the other hand, pursuing an ambitious emission scenario, S3 would prevent 775,000 (~23.6%) premature mortality burden and improve mean life expectancy by about 1.9 ± 0.7 years in 2030. Results indicate that ambitious actions beyond the ambitious prospective regulations are vital to gain significant health benefits.


Keywords: Air quality, Premature mortality, Emission scenarios, Particulate matter, WRF-Chem




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