Tangyan Hou1, Shaocai Yu This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.1, Yaping Jiang1, Xue Chen1, Yibo Zhang1, Mengying Li1, Zhen Li1, Zhe Song1, Pengfei Li This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.2, Jianming Chen3, Xiaoye Zhang1,4 

1 Key Laboratory of Environmental Remediation and Ecological Health, Ministry of Education; Research Center for Air Pollution and Health, College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310058, China
2 College of Science and Technology, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding, Hebei 071000, China
3 Research Center of Analysis and Measurement, Department of Environmental Science & Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China
4 Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry; Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China


Received: December 31, 2021
Revised: April 26, 2022
Accepted: May 8, 2022

 Copyright The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are cited.


Download Citation: ||https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.210402  


Cite this article:

Hou, T., Yu, S., Jiang, Y., Chen, X., Zhang, Y., Li, M., Li, Z., Song, Z., Li, P., Chen, J., Zhang, X. (2022). Impacts of Chemical Initial Conditions in the WRF-CMAQ Model on the Ozone Forecasts in Eastern China. Aerosol Air Qual. Res. https://doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.210402


HIGHLIGHTS

  • WRF-FNL showed better model performances on meteorological parameters than WRF-GFS.
  • FNL-GFS improved model forecasts for O3 concentrations compared to GFS-GFS.
  • The ozone episodes in Tai’an city were caused by higher temperatures and lower RH.
  • Industry emissions were the largest contributor to O3 formations in Tai’an city.
 

ABSTRACT


Ozone (O3) has become the major factor for exceeding air pollution standards in many Chinese cities, especially in the more economically developed and densely populated regions, such as eastern China. In this study, we applied the Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model to predict the air quality, and evaluated the influences of different chemical initial conditions on the O3 forecasts with observations in Tai’an and other 13 cities in eastern China in June 2021. The influences of different chemical initial conditions on the O3 forecasts are presented by using two sets of meteorological data (NCEP Final Operational Global Analysis [FNL] and Global Forecast System [GFS]) as initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC) to drive the WRF/CMAQ model. It was found that the O3 concentrations forecasted by FNL-GFS, in which the chemical IC derived from the CMAQ simulation results by using the FNL data as IC and BC, were closer to observations in all cities than GFS-GFS, in which the chemical IC derived from the CMAQ simulation results by using the GFS data as IC and BC. The normalized mean bias (NMB) values of FNL-GFS for O3 met the benchmark (±15%), while the NMB values of GFS-GFS in Hangzhou and Shijiazhuang did not meet the benchmark. The model performances in Tai’an city were similar to those in 13 cities with better results for FNL-GFS than GFS-GFS. The comparisons of contributions of source regions to O3 in the receptor Tai’an city indicate that different episodes had different relative contributions of source regions and that the simulations of FNL-GFS were more similar to the retrospective simulations than GFS-GFS. The comparisons of contributions of different source sectors to O3 in Tai’an city show that industry emissions are the largest contributor, followed by transportation, power plants and residential emissions.


Keywords: Air quality forecast, Chemical initial condition, FNL, GFS, Ozone




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