Weather Conditions (with focus on UV radiation) Associated with COVID-19 Outbreak and Worldwide Climate-based Prediction for Future Prevention

ABSTRACT

Respiratory infectious diseases are highly influenced by climate and feature seasonality, whose peak is December to February in the Northern Hemisphere. SARS-COV-2 produced consistent debate regarding the relationship between its emergence and weather conditions. Our study explored these conditions, expressed by three main parameters - ultraviolet radiation, air temperature and relative humidity - that characterized Hubei (China), the source region of COVID-19 pandemic, in November 2019-March 2020. During Covid-19 outbreak, the low amounts of UV radiation (down to -273 kJ m^-² in January 2020) are associated with the early stage environmental survival of the novel coronavirus. As well, this period was characterized by a high relative humidity during peak hours of the day, and a positive air temperature anomaly (+1.7 ⁰C in December 2019), which also favored the outdoor people mobility in winter. Based on Hubei analysis, a presumed optimal weather frame was set in order to identify other world regions with similar weather characteristics. In brief, the „Hubei weather profile” was recorded in those regions of COVID-19 outbreak in February 2020, such as northern Iran, Italy or Spain. Our results, which focused on the role of the UV solar radiation, could be used as a prediction tool for identifying the world regions with a higher risk of future faster increase in COVID-19 cases.