Decoupling Effects and Decomposition Analysis of CO2 Emissions from Thailand’s Thermal Power Sector

ABSTRACT

Electricity is the basic need of most economic sectors within a national economy. Electricity generation not only directly affects the amount of CO₂ emissions, but it also indirectly affects a country’s economic system. For Thailand, the electricity generation sector represents the largest source of CO₂ emissions, so it is necessary to investigate the potential factors contributing to the changes in CO₂ emissions from this power sector. Here, a decoupling method was used to evaluate the relationships between energy consumption and the CO₂ emissions from Thailand’s thermal power generation that were caused by economic developments during 2000–2011. Key factors affecting the evolution of CO₂ emissions from Thailand’s thermal power sector were analyzed by Divisia index decomposition. Changes in the emission coefficient, heat rate, fuel intensity, electricity intensity and economic growth were investigated. The results reveal that energy consumption and CO₂ emissions were coupled during 2000–2005, whereas a relative decoupling appeared for 2006–2011. Moreover, the economic effect was the critical factor for increased CO₂ emissions from Thailand’s thermal power generation, while electricity intensity played a dominant role in decreased CO₂ emissions. Since the CO₂ emissions released from Thailand’s electricity generation are rapidly increasing, the Thai government will be required to reduce CO₂ emissions in the future by enhancing energy conservation, reconstructing the fuel mix in power generation, promoting a shift in the economic structure toward less energy-intensive services, and orienting Thailand’s power industry towards low carbon electricity generation.